Manitoba

Education and Training

High School Graduation Rates and Student Achievement Statistics


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Manitoba Education and Training is committed to increasing high school graduation rates and student success across the province. To understand where we are making progress and where improvement is still needed, we need to examine our data on student achievement in a variety of ways.


High School Graduation Rates

High school graduation is generally viewed as the minimum requirement for pursuing additional education and for entry into the world of work.

There are many ways to calculate rates for successfully completing high school. Manitoba’s high school graduation rate for 2002 onwards has been obtained by dividing the number of graduates in a given year by the number of Grade 9 students four years earlier. This is considered a proxy cohort method.

With recent improvements in our provincial data collection processes, we are now also able to follow individual students as they progress through high school. This new student-tracked method allows us to more accurately understand how long it takes for individual students to graduate and to help us better identify certain achievement gaps, such as those between male and female students and between non-Aboriginal and self-declared Aboriginal students.


Manitoba’s Provincial High School Graduation Rate (proxy cohort)

Manitoba’s provincial (proxy cohort) high school graduation rate for June 2014 is 87.0%. This is an increase of 1.7 percentage points from June 2013. Between June 2002 and June 2014, Manitoba's high school graduation rate has increased 15.9 percentage points.

Manitoba’s Proxy Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Provincial Overall 2002-2014

Graph of Manitoba High School Proxy Cohort Graduation Rate

Note: Includes only students from public and funded independent schools. Does not include students from non-funded independent schools, or those in schools that do not fall under the Public Schools Act, such as First Nations schools (including those administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements), or Adult Learning Centres.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 73 KB)

 

Manitoba’s Proxy Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Male and Female Students 2010-2014

Graph of Manitoba's High School Graduation Rate - Male and Female Students

Note: Includes only students from public and funded independent schools. Does not include students from non-funded independent schools, or those in schools that do not fall under the Public Schools Act, such as First Nations schools (including those administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements), or Adult Learning Centres.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 79 KB)

Manitoba’s Proxy Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Non-Aboriginal and Self-Declared Aboriginal Students 2010-2014

Every year, the department asks school divisions and schools to include the Aboriginal self-declaration form with the school registration forms so that all new and continuing students are given an opportunity to declare their identity annually. Students categorized as non-Aboriginal include those who have not self-declared their Aboriginal identity. More information about Manitoba’s voluntary Aboriginal self declaration can be found on the Aboriginal Education Directorate website.

Graph of Manitoba's High School Graduation Rate - Non-Aboriginal and Self-Declared Aboriginal Students

Note: Includes only students from public and funded independent schools. Does not include students from non-funded independent schools, or those in schools that do not fall under the Public Schools Act, such as First Nations schools (including those administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements), or Adult Learning Centres.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 82 KB)

More about Manitoba’s Proxy Cohort High School Graduation Rate

Manitoba’s proxy cohort high school graduation rate is comprised of the ratio of the total number of graduates reported by public and funded independent high schools at the end of every academic year to the total Grade 9 enrolment in these schools four years prior to the year of graduation. It does not include students from non-funded independent schools, First Nations schools (including those managed by Frontier School Division under educational agreements) or Adult Learning Centres.

The graduates in a given year do not all necessarily come from the same group of Grade 9 students; they may include those who have entered the provincial system after Grade 9 and those who have taken longer than the typical four years to complete the requirements for graduation. It is also important to note that this method is not a calculation of a four-year sequential graduation rate, nor an individual student-tracked rate that follows students as they move from Grade 9 to graduation.


Manitoba's NEW Student-Tracked High School Graduation Rate

The increased focus on the use of data in educational planning and decision making and in closing student achievement gaps has resulted in the need for governments to develop more accurate ways of understanding students’ progression through their education systems, particularly those students who have been less successful. Identifying and understanding gaps has been heightened with the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s (TRC) call to eliminate education and employment gaps between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians.

High school graduation in Manitoba typically occurs within four years of beginning Grade 9. This is referred to as “on-time” graduation. For some students, and for a variety of reasons, taking more time to obtain their credits for graduation could make the difference between successfully completing high school or not. This persistence to graduation is referred to as “extended-time” graduation.

Since June 2013, the department has had the necessary data to calculate a student-tracked graduation rate, beginning with those students who started Grade 9 in September 2009. In the 2009/2010 school year the department moved from a paper-based survey to an electronic collection of high school graduation data, which allows us to know exactly when individual students graduate.

Manitoba’s four-year student-tracked high school graduation rate for 2013 is 76.2%. For non-Aboriginal students the rate is 83.5% and for self-declared Aboriginal students it is 46.9%. As would be expected, the five-year “extended-time” rate is higher at 80.5 overall, 87.5% for non-Aboriginal students and 52.8% for self-declared Aboriginal students. Additional “extended-time” rates will be reported as data becomes available.

Manitoba's Four-Year Student-Tracked High School Graduation Rate
Manitoba's Four-Year Student-Tracked High School Graduation Rate
Grade 9 Enrolment Four-Year Graduation Provincial Male Female Non-Aboriginal Self-Declared
Aboriginal a
Overall Male Female Overall Male Female
September 2009 June 2013 76.2% 73.4% 79.0% 83.5% 80.3% 86.9% 46.9% 45.0% 48.8%
September 2010 June 2014 77.3% 74.9% 79.7% 84.7% 81.5% 88.3% 47.3% 46.6% 47.9%

Note: Includes only students from public and funded independent schools. Does not include students from non-funded independent schools, or those in schools that do not fall under the Public Schools Act, such as First Nations schools (including those administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements), or Adult Learning Centres.
a Every year, parents of new or continuing students are given the opportunity to indicate if they are declaring their child's Aboriginal Identity for the first time, or altering their child's previously declared identity, or confirming that a previous declaration has been made.

Manitoba’s Five-Year Student-Tracked High School Graduation Rate
Manitoba’s Five-Year Student-Tracked High School Graduation Rate
Grade 9 Enrolment Five-Year Graduation Provincial Male Female Non-Aboriginal Self-Declared
Aboriginal a
Overall Male Female Overall Male Female
September 2009 June 2014 80.5% 78.1% 82.9% 87.5% 84.4% 90.2% 52.8% 51.0% 54.5%

Note: Includes only students from public and funded independent schools. Does not include students from non-funded independent schools, or those in schools that do not fall under the Public Schools Act, such as First Nations schools (including those administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements), or Adult Learning Centres.
a Every year, parents of new or continuing students are given the opportunity to indicate if they are declaring their child's Aboriginal Identity for the first time, or altering their child's previously declared identity, or confirming that a previous declaration has been made.

More about Manitoba’s Student-Tracked High School Graduation Rate

To determine Manitoba’s student-tracked high school graduation rate, the department follows individual students in public and funded independent schools from Grade 9 and calculates the percentage who graduate within a certain period of time. It does not include students from non-funded independent schools, First Nations schools (including those administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements), or Adult Learning Centres.

To improve accuracy, this method makes adjustments for moving out of the province, deaths, and for the proportion of school age children not enrolled in public and funded independent schools. The calculation of the student-tracked graduation rate does not account for students who have transferred out of public and funded independent schools to enroll in First Nations schools, non-funded independent schools, and Adult Learning Centres, and students who have withdrawn from school.

This method also allows the department to disaggregate graduation rates for male and female students as well as for self-declared Aboriginal students and non-Aboriginal students.


Other High School Completion Rates

Many methods of calculating high school completion rates exist at the international, national, and provincial levels. The key differences between the various rates lie in the determination of the group of students to be counted, the timeframe, and who is considered to be a graduate.

Manitoba Centre for Health Policy

In its 2012 report How are Manitoba’s Children Doing? (Adobe PDF Document 4.98 MB) the MCHP calculated high school completion rates using what they call cross-sectional and cohort methods. Their cross-sectional rate (80.8% in 2010) simulates Manitoba’s proxy cohort rate (82.7% in 2010). The MCHP methods determine graduates by counting credits obtained through high school and in Grade 12.

Pan-Canadian Education Indicators Program (PCEIP)

The PCEIP is a joint venture between the Council of Ministers of Education Canada and Statistics Canada that produces two proxy measures for upper secondary (high school) graduation.

Detailed information about these pan-Canadian rates can be found in section A2 of Education Indicators in Canada: An International Perspective, 2014 (Adobe PDF Document 1.69 MB).

Upper secondary graduation rate (78% for Manitoba in 2011) is an estimate of the probability that a person will graduate from high school during his or her lifetime while successful completion of upper secondary programs in public schools (74% for Manitoba in 2011) is an estimate of the effectiveness of Canada’s provinces in producing graduates from their public school systems within a three-year period, that is, Grades 10 to 12 (Grades 9 to 11 in Quebec). The biggest difference between the PCEIP public school rate and the Manitoba provincial proxy rate is the student population included. The PCEIP rate does not include Manitoba’s funded independent schools which account for approximately 12% of Manitoba graduates each year.

In addition to the PCEIP upper secondary graduation rates, Manitoba is actively engaged in the full scope of the program’s indicator work.  This includes continuous improvements to pan-Canadian graduation rates, and the adoption of a harmonized pan-Canadian approach for the self-declaration of Aboriginal students.

Western Provinces

Provincial graduation rates across Canada are calculated using a variety of methods, such that no two provinces or territories calculate in precisely the same way. The composition of the cohorts, what qualifies a student to be counted as a graduate, and the timeframes used for the calculation vary across the country. Therefore, caution is needed when making comparisons between provinces.

Western Provinces
Province Latest Reporting Period Coverage High School Completion/Graduation Rate
British Columbia a 2014/2015 6-year rate
(from Grade 8)
All students: 83.9%
Aboriginal: 63.0%
Alberta b 2013/2014 5-year rate
(from Grade 10)
All students: 81.7%
First Nations, Métis and Inuit: 50.1%
Saskatchewan c 2013/2014 3-year rate
(from Grade 10)
Overall provincial: 74.7%
First Nations, Métis and Inuit: 40.3%
5-year rate
(from Grade 10)
Overall provincial: 81.4%
First Nations, Métis and Inuit: 54.2%

a British Columbia – Provincial Reports and Six-Year Completion and Grade 12 Graduation Rates - 2014/15 Province – Public and Independent Schools Combined (Adobe PDF Document 12 KB)
b Alberta – 2013/14 Performance Measures Summary Table (Adobe PDF Document 277KB)
c Saskatchewan – Ministry of Education Annual Report for 2014-15 (Adobe PDF Document 284 KB)

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Successful Grade 9 Credit Attainment

Grade 9 is the first year in Manitoba schools when students must pass core courses toward earning their high school diploma. For many, this transition year can mean declines in academic achievement and increased absences among other social factors that impact their success. Research shows that success in Grade 9 credit attainment is a critical determinant of a student’s likelihood of successfully completing high school.

Manitoba’s Grade 9 credit attainment information includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as students from First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.


Grade 9 Mathematics

Percentage of First Time Grade 9 Students Who Attained a Mathematics Credit by Year End

Grade 9 Mathematics Credit Attainment – Provincial Overall

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 52 KB)

Grade 9 Mathematics Credit Attainment – Male and Female Students

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 76 KB)

Grade 9 Mathematics Credit Attainment – Non-Aboriginal and Self-Declared Aboriginala Students

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

a Every year, parents of new or continuing students are given the opportunity to indicate if they are declaring their child’s Aboriginal identity for the first time, or altering their child’s previously declared identity, or confirming that a previous declaration has been made.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 80 KB)

Grade 9 Mathematics Credit Attainment – Urban, Rural, and Northern Regions

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 91 KB)

Grade 9 Mathematics Credit Attainment – English, Français, and French Immersion Programsa

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.
a Over the course of the five school years, 90% of the students in those years were in the English Program, 8% were in the French Immersion Program, and 2% were in the Français Program.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 92 KB)


Grade 9 English Language Arts

Percentage of First Time Grade 9 Students Who Attained an English Language Arts Credit by Year End

Grade 9 English Language Arts Credit Attainment – Provincial Overall

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 50 KB)

Grade 9 English Language Arts Credit Attainment – Male and Female Students

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 75 KB)

Grade 9 English Language Arts Credit Attainment – Non-Aboriginal and Self-Declared Aboriginala Students

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.
a Every year, parents of new or continuing students are given the opportunity to indicate if they are declaring their child’s Aboriginal identity for the first time, or altering their child’s previously declared identity, or confirming that a previous declaration has been made.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 78 KB)

Grade 9 English Language Arts Credit Attainment – Urban, Rural, and Northern Regions

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 88 KB)

Grade 9 English Language Arts Credit Attainment – English, Français, and French Immersion Programsa

Note: Includes students from public and funded independent schools as well as First Nations schools administered by Frontier School Division under educational agreements.
a Over the course of the five school years, 90% of the students in those years were in the English Program, 8% were in the French Immersion Program, and 2% were in the Français Program.

Full scale version of graph (Adobe PDF Document 88 KB)

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Provincial Assessment Results

Provincial reports containing a range of student achievement information, including results from provincial assessments, are available on the Assessment and Evaluation Provincial Results website.

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Going Forward

More detailed information about Manitoba’s provincial assessment results will be added in the future to allow for examination of the following student achievement data in a variety of ways:

  • Grade 12 Provincial Tests
  • Middle Years Assessment
  • Early Years Assessment

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